Are we near the end of the global economic recession?

by admin on June 11, 2011

This is a good question and there are currently many pieces of data that make me think that we may be coming to the end of the recession.

In the last week we have seen Germany, France and Japan actually post GDP growth between April and June 2009. This has brought an end to the year-long recession for these nations.

I strongly suspect more countries will follow in the coming months.

However, a few nations coming out of recession doesn’t mean all is rosey. There are still risks in the global financial system system and it seems we are very unlikely to return to the growth levels seen in recent years, for quite a long time.

I feel recovery is likely to be slow, but we will haul ourselves out of this mess eventually.

Was the recession as bad as it could have been?

I would say no. Many experts predicted financial Armageddon, but thankfully this scenario has been averted. I feel the recession is significant, but it’s nothing like as bad as the “Great Depression” of the 1930s.

Back then, the US GDP contracted by around 25%, unemployment hit 25% and back then there were no bank bailouts and government insurance on bank deposits. As a result many people lost their savings they had in the bank.

Unemployment

Losing your job is tough, especially if you have a family and a mortgage to pay. You may be in this position. If you are I feel for you.

The good news is the jobs market will improve as the global recession lifts. The bad news unfortunately is that in historical recessions, unemployment has continued to rise for a period of time after the recession.

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